Quarterly results highlight a bifurcation: Microsoft revenue +18% with a $678bn backlog and Azure revenue surpassing $100bn; Meta revenue +28%. Visible Alpha shows Microsoft capex growth has run hot for three years—average ~62% for 2024–26—well above Azure’s ~37% revenue growth; Meta’s Q2 free cash flow fell 91% as data-center spending surged. Analysts estimate 2026 capex for the four big cloud vendors (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) at about $698bn, roughly equal to the projected free cash

Quarterly results highlight a bifurcation: Microsoft revenue +18% with a $678bn backlog and Azure revenue surpassing $100bn; Meta revenue +28%. Visible Alpha shows Microsoft capex growth has run hot for three years—average ~62% for 2024–26—well above Azure’s ~37% revenue growth; Meta’s Q2 free cash flow fell 91% as data-center spending surged. Analysts estimate 2026 capex for the four big cloud vendors (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) at about $698bn, roughly equal to the projected free cash flow of four major chipmakers (NVIDIA, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron). The market takeaway: demand may not be the constraint—spending is. Investors will remain cautious until Microsoft demonstrates Azure revenue growth sustainably outpacing capex and Meta shows AI-driven improvement in margins and free cash flow. AI-driven cash is flowing to chipmakers while returns to large cloud players remain congested.