JP Morgan said after July's Fed meeting it now expects the Fed's first rate hike in December 2026, moving the forecast forward from H2 2027. Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said the new Fed chair's press conference again failed to explain how he will deliver on his stated anti‑inflation resolve and raised questions about whether the PCE price index will remain the Fed's inflation gauge. JP Morgan characterised the forecast shift as a warning about Fed credibility rather than market ‘pressure

JP Morgan said after July's Fed meeting it now expects the Fed's first rate hike in December 2026, moving the forecast forward from H2 2027. Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said the new Fed chair's press conference again failed to explain how he will deliver on his stated anti‑inflation resolve and raised questions about whether the PCE price index will remain the Fed's inflation gauge. JP Morgan characterised the forecast shift as a warning about Fed credibility rather than market ‘pressure’, arguing the chair's ambiguous guidance could prompt other FOMC members to adopt a more urgent stance on price stability.