“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos：前瞻指引是央行对未来计划采取的行动，或者在何种情况下将采取某项行动所作出的声明。这与反应函数有很大不同。反应函数是一种映射关系，例如可以表现为泰勒规则。它并不需要任何预测。反应函数并没有说明经济或政策未来将走向何方；相反，它回答的是在面对特定经济状况、政策权衡或其他因素时，政策应当如何作出回应。

Nick Timiraos: US June core PCE rose 0.13% MoM, the smallest monthly increase since March 2025 (1.6% annualized). Three-month annualized pace 2.9% (year-ago 2.8%); six-month annualized 3.8% (year-ago 3.1%); 12-month change 3.3% (year-ago 2.8%).

Median forecast for US June core PCE YoY 3.3% (prior 3.4%). Most major houses cluster at 3.3%; lowest BMO 3.1%, UniCredit 3.2%; TD, HSBC, JP Morgan and Berenberg at 3.4%. Median Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ 2.1% (prior 2.1%). Forecasts range 0.8%-2.9%: United Overseas Bank 0.8% at the low end, Jefferies 2.9% at the high end; many dealers cluster around 1.7%-1.9% (UBS, BofA Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Deutsche Bank), JPM at 2.0%, Barclays 2.5%, HSBC 2.6%.