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Most houses expect the Bank of England to hold policy at 3.75% at the meeting. ING and several forecasters see no rate moves through the year, with inflation drifting toward about 3% in H2–early next year. BNY Mellon and others expect no change and at most two dissenters; some models predict a 7-2 hold. Berenberg and others say the BoE will keep rates at 3.75% but judge future cuts more likely than further hikes. BofA expects a hold but notes the committee may leave the door open to future tightening and will flag its assessment of QT. Governor Bailey is expected to stress slowing wage growth. Reuters’ survey and some banks warn the US–Iran conflict remains an upside inflation risk. Commerzbank says if that conflict ends by end‑September and labour market weakness persists, cuts become more likely. Oxford Economics expects officials to highlight upside inflation risk and signal readiness to raise rates if second‑round effects appear. NIESR projects no policy change through end‑2027. Market takeaways: hold at 3.75% is priced, but monitor vote split, inflation guidance, QT wording, wage dynamics and geopolitically driven inflation risk.

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