ABN AMRO Bank analyst Alexander Krueger said in a report that despite a Q2
growth surprise, the ECB is unlikely to raise its policy rate from the current
2.25% to above 2.50%. He flagged Q2 QoQ growth of 0.4% — with Ireland flipping
from a Q1 drag to a Q2 contributor — but said added pressure from the Iran war
and a protracted Middle East conflict would delay a return to normal and keep
the ECB closely monitoring growth and inflation.
