Derek Halpenny at Mitsubishi UFJ said in a note that if the Bank of England’s rate decision strengthens market expectations of a September rate hike, the pound could appreciate. He warned the BOE may express greater concern about spillovers from the Middle East conflict; prolonged energy-price rises now look a larger risk than at June’s meeting and could "certainly force the Bank of England to act, even with mixed labour market conditions." Markets currently price roughly a 50% probability of a

Derek Halpenny at Mitsubishi UFJ said in a note that if the Bank of England’s rate decision strengthens market expectations of a September rate hike, the pound could appreciate. He warned the BOE may express greater concern about spillovers from the Middle East conflict; prolonged energy-price rises now look a larger risk than at June’s meeting and could "certainly force the Bank of England to act, even with mixed labour market conditions." Markets currently price roughly a 50% probability of a September hike.