Zhaolian chief economist Dong Ximiao expects RRR and interest-rate cuts in Q3. If H2 economic recovery momentum weakens, the policy rate could be trimmed 10-20 bps; but with commercial banks’ net interest margins near 1.40%—a historic low—LPR has limited downside, likely 5-10 bps. On RRR, to accommodate concentrated fiscal bond issuance and keep banking-system liquidity reasonably ample, there is 25-50 bps of cut space this year; implementation could be timed to bond-supply peaks or liquidity-ti

Zhaolian chief economist Dong Ximiao expects RRR and interest-rate cuts in Q3. If H2 economic recovery momentum weakens, the policy rate could be trimmed 10-20 bps; but with commercial banks’ net interest margins near 1.40%—a historic low—LPR has limited downside, likely 5-10 bps. On RRR, to accommodate concentrated fiscal bond issuance and keep banking-system liquidity reasonably ample, there is 25-50 bps of cut space this year; implementation could be timed to bond-supply peaks or liquidity-tight episodes. The PBOC will rely more on structural monetary tools, step up timely liquidity management, and expand targeted support for tech innovation, consumption and small- and micro-enterprises.