日本央行行长植田和男：预计实际GDP增长与4月的展望报告基本持平。

Major banks and a Reuters survey expect the BOJ to hold policy at this meeting, with October the earliest likely window for a rate increase. JPMorgan and others cite slowing inflation and weak wages as reasons to pause; Citi says a clear October roadmap from Governor Ueda would be a strong hawkish signal but is unlikely in the near term. Several banks warn that insufficiently hawkish messaging could push USD/JPY toward 165, keeping intervention risk elevated, while some firms (Meiji Yasuda) still see scope for an accelerated hiking pace to counter inflation and yen selling. Market takeaway: a sustained yen rebound likely requires tightening from both the BOJ and the Fed; any October guidance or signs of faster tightening would be material for rates, FX and intervention probability.

Bank of Japan will assess the impact of Middle East developments on the timing and pace of rate hikes.