White House NEC Director Hassett said policy rates can remain on hold, but at
the July FOMC meeting Hamak and Kashkari argued for a 25bp hike, moving the
debate from timing to how to judge the nature of inflation. Hassett emphasized
growth and investment, saying current data do not justify a hike; the hawks
warned that successive supply shocks—energy, tariffs—plus AI-driven data‑center
investment could convert short-term shocks into sustained price‑setting and
inflation expectations. If the hawkish bloc widens, market expectations for rate
cuts could be pushed out; persistent White House opposition to hikes would
increase scrutiny of Fed independence and its anti-inflation resolve.