BESSENT’s debt management team has repeatedly rejected Wall Street and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) requests to drop forward guidance in the Treasury’s future bond issuance plan, and many dealers now no longer expect a near-term policy change. Ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly debt strategy statement, most market participants expect the Treasury to reaffirm it will “not increase note and bond sizes for at least the next few quarters.” The guidance dates to the Biden administrati

BESSENT’s debt management team has repeatedly rejected Wall Street and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) requests to drop forward guidance in the Treasury’s future bond issuance plan, and many dealers now no longer expect a near-term policy change. Ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly debt strategy statement, most market participants expect the Treasury to reaffirm it will “not increase note and bond sizes for at least the next few quarters.” The guidance dates to the Biden administration; BESSENT previously criticized it as aimed at lowering long-term borrowing costs before the 2024 election. With midterms approaching, Republican officials also prefer to avoid signals that could expand auctions and push yields higher. RBC Capital Markets US rates strategist Blake Gwinn said Treasury should preserve optionality: modifying the guidance could lift yields, but the later the change, the larger the potential market impact.