Economists forecast 85,000 nonfarm payrolls in July after 57,000 in June—both
well below levels in prior years. A shrinking labor supply means fewer jobs are
needed to keep the unemployment rate stable, whether from tighter immigration
enforcement or increased baby-boomer retirements. Comerica Bank chief economist
Bill Adams says employers likely added modest jobs in July, keeping the
unemployment rate roughly unchanged while the labor force participation rate
edges up slightly from June's post‑pandemic low. Household survey gains may
continue to lag payroll hiring; if that persists it would put downward pressure
on the unemployment rate.
