CITIC Securities says gold remains in a bull market despite a sharp pullback
this year and that the decline is likely a temporary correction. The firm cites
accelerating US fiscal deficits, persistent central-bank gold buying and
deglobalization-driven geopolitical fractures as structural supports. The
current drawdown is approaching historical extremes and around $4,000/oz is a
high-probability bottom region. Looking ahead, CITIC expects the Strait of
Hormuz dynamic to shift from suppressing to supporting prices, the Fed’s
monetary policy may be more optimistic than market pricing, and a surge in US
defense spending will widen deficits — together likely returning gold to an
upward channel within the year.
