Founder Securities says the market’s oversold rebound has entered a decisive
phase, with technology and high‑cycle (景气) tracks diverging. It highlights three
allocation themes. First, technology requires selective positioning:
innovation/startup segments have rebounded roughly 10% from their lows and,
versus typical oversold-theme rebounds, may have additional upside. The AI
narrative shifted after US cloud service provider earnings; marginal weakening
of competitive capex makes cloud businesses and healthy cash flow the
differentiators. Founder advises a balanced exposure between AI hardware and
applications, prioritising overseas compute names with low crowding, domestic
compute plays with high visibility in semiconductor equipment and materials, and
relatively depressed AI application names and Hang Seng Tech stocks. Second,
with Fed rate‑hike expectations easing, seek HALO assets: beyond core resource
plays (nonferrous metals and chemicals), consider oversold new and old energy
segments — power grid and power equipment, coal and petrochemicals. Third, focus
on pharmaceutical large caps with solid fundamentals, low crowding and easing
downside pressures.
