TD Securities expects the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, a base case in line with market expectations and OIS pricing that shows near-zero odds of a hike, implying limited surprise risk to the AUD or rate markets from the decision itself. The Monetary Policy Statement will be the more market-relevant signal. TD Securities expects the RBA to resist materially downgrading inflation forecasts despite weaker-than-expected trimmed-mean CPI, citing elevated oil prices as a persistent upside risk.

TD Securities expects the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, a base case in line with market expectations and OIS pricing that shows near-zero odds of a hike, implying limited surprise risk to the AUD or rate markets from the decision itself. The Monetary Policy Statement will be the more market-relevant signal. TD Securities expects the RBA to resist materially downgrading inflation forecasts despite weaker-than-expected trimmed-mean CPI, citing elevated oil prices as a persistent upside risk. A confirmed hold plus cautious (not dovish) forecast revisions should produce a muted market reaction; any surprise is likelier to stem from the wording of the forecasts than from the rate decision.