Bank of France expects Q3 GDP to rise 0.2%, unchanged from Q2 and slightly above
market consensus of 0.1%. Services — notably transport, information and
communications — should continue to support activity; manufacturing rebounded in
August. Energy output is expected to expand, while construction may weaken
further amid fewer public project contracts. A survey of about 8,500 firms
showed slower July increases in raw material costs and selling prices,
suggesting the pass-through of spring input-cost rises to final prices may be
near completion. The bank flagged significant uncertainty from Middle East
geopolitics and extreme weather and noted mixed signals ahead of the
presidential election: a Q2 rebound alongside unemployment at a near six-year
high and persistent budget deficit pressures.
