The IEA said renewed escalation of Iran-related hostilities and maritime
disruptions will hinder output recovery, leaving the global oil market with an
estimated 1.8 mln bpd supply shortfall. It expects inventory draws this quarter
to be more than double prior estimates and says global stocks have tightened
again. The agency raised its forecast of this year’s global oil demand decline
by nearly 50% to 1.6 mln bpd, the largest annual drop since 2020. The IEA warned
the 2026 supply gap could be the biggest in five years but expects inventories
to be rebuilt next year as the market swings back to surplus. It added that the
US, Japan and Germany, after record strategic reserve releases in March, will
need to replenish emergency stocks.
