A Bloomberg survey of economists shows Russia is expected to return to growth in
Q2, with the median forecast at +0.9% YoY after a Q1 contraction — the first in
three years. Sustained government spending above budget remains the main driver
of wartime growth. Double-digit wage gains are squeezing corporate margins but
supporting resilient consumer demand. An increase in working days could lift
annual growth and offset last quarter’s drag. Escalating Ukrainian drone strikes
deep inside Russia pose a downside risk to this fragile recovery.
