日本首相高市早苗：在霍尔木兹海峡局势进入关键阶段之际，考虑到伊朗正继续与相关国家就实现海峡开放展开沟通，日本认为，缓解当前军事紧张局势并尽快平息事态至关重要。

The IEA said renewed escalation of Iran-related hostilities and maritime disruptions will hinder output recovery, leaving the global oil market with an estimated 1.8 mln bpd supply shortfall. It expects inventory draws this quarter to be more than double prior estimates and says global stocks have tightened again. The agency raised its forecast of this year’s global oil demand decline by nearly 50% to 1.6 mln bpd, the largest annual drop since 2020. The IEA warned the 2026 supply gap could be the biggest in five years but expects inventories to be rebuilt next year as the market swings back to surplus. It added that the US, Japan and Germany, after record strategic reserve releases in March, will need to replenish emergency stocks.

One-week USD/JPY option implied volatility rose for a second session on Wednesday after five days of declines as traders ramp up option activity ahead of the US CPI print. Market participants are using derivatives to position around an inflation read that could alter Fed policy and dollar direction. Short-dated vol and a premium in USD/JPY puts over calls show demand for protection amid lingering fears of coordinated US-Japan FX intervention and sudden dollar weakness; longer-dated vol has also ticked up as investors buy calls to bet on a later USD/JPY rebound.