Traders continue to price a 45% chance of a Fed rate hike in September.

Huayuan Securities estimates outstanding wealth-management product (WMP) balances were 35.4 tln yuan at end-July 2026, up 1.75 tln yuan month-on-month and a record high. July increases in 2021–25 averaged 1.8 tln yuan, so this month’s rise aligned with seasonal norms. Huayuan said a stock-market correction pushed secondary bond fund returns lower and caused NAV drawdowns in some WMPs, likely damping net inflows. Average monthly annualized yields on WMP fixed-income and pure fixed-income products fell MoM to 0.56% and 1.51%, respectively.

CITIC Securities research note, citing CUSTOMS data: July rare-earth exports 4,223.5 t, down 29.54% YoY and 17.26% MoM, the lowest monthly level since March; Jan–Jul cumulative exports 34,706.3 t, down 10% YoY. Average export price $12.34/kg, up 103.14% YoY, as export mix shifts toward higher-value medium/heavy rare-earths and overseas buyers accept pricier feedstock. Supply-side tightness persists—no new incremental supply, separation plants running stably, and previously idled producers have no restart plans—while downstream rigid demand and positive long-term demand expectations support prices. Near-term outlook: prices steady-to-firm.