Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Xin'an Asset Management, said today's CPI
print plus weak July jobs should cool expectations for a September Fed hike but
do not eliminate the risk. Unless August inflation also shows muted price
pressures, a September move remains a material possibility. With the Strait of
Hormuz still closed, energy supply upside to inflation is a lingering risk; the
baseline view is that the Fed will hold rates this year, but continued supply
disruption would keep intra‑year hike risk alive. Shah also flagged AI-driven
inflationary pressures as a non-negligible upside risk.
