美国至8月7日当周EIA精炼油库存 -1万桶，预期-129.6万桶，前值-347.3万桶。

David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed should hold rates and does not need to raise them, expecting inflation to taper gradually as evidence mounts that a persistent wage‑price spiral is unlikely. After July’s CPI showed moderate core inflation, US Treasuries extended gains. Kelly cited three disinflationary forces: tariff-related costs should fall on a year‑on‑year basis; oil prices are likely to retreat as markets grow optimistic the Iran war will end; and wage growth continues to lag inflation, weakening the feedback loop that would sustain price pressures. He added markets are highly leveraged, so even small rate rises could trigger asset repricing.

美国和伊朗于6月17日签署14点谅解备忘录，确立停火并设定60天期限谈判永久结束战争。然而数周内，协议因冲突再度升级而出现裂痕。备忘录虽宣布停止敌对行动并开放霍尔木兹海峡供商船通行，但关键条款措辞模糊，双方互相指责违约。主要争议条款如下： 第5条（霍尔木兹海峡）：规定保障商业自由通行，但解释存异。德黑兰认为该条款意味着美方承认伊朗对整条水道的管理权，且伊方仅同意免收通行费两个月；美方则坚持文本仅要求伊朗确保安全通行，不得强制执行限制或征税。 第10条（石油与制裁豁免）：美方同意发放豁免，使伊朗能够出口原油、石油产品及相关服务，包括国际银行、保险和航运支持。 第11条（解冻金融资产）：美方承诺使伊朗被冻结资金和受限资产“完全可供使用”，具体机制将在谈判中商定。 由于双方未展开直接外交对话，且短期内无望就最终解决方案取得实质进展，该备忘录于本周日到期后的前景仍充满不确定性。