RBNZ survey: New Zealand Q3 two-year average inflation expectations at 2.34%.

Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Henry Hao say markets have repriced the odds of an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, supporting Brent and WTI. Iran says the strait will remain closed until its conditions are met; mixed signals suggest talks are ongoing but a near-term deal to restore normal shipping appears unlikely. Security incidents remain elevated: a US Navy helicopter fired on a vessel attempting to breach a US blockade of Iranian ports, and separate merchant-vessel incidents were reported in the Gulf of Oman and off Yemen’s Red Sea coast. European diesel has surged after refinery disruptions elsewhere, tightening product markets. July’s energy-led drop helped ease headline inflation, but the recent oil rebound raises upside risk to US inflation in coming months.

据两名消息人士称，俄罗斯奥尔斯克石油公司炼油厂在8月11日遭遇无人机袭击后暂停生产。