The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raised its year-end inflation forecast to 28% from 26%, Governor Fatih Karahan said at a press briefing in Istanbul on Thursday. A central bank survey last month showed market participants expect year-end inflation of 29%. Karahan cited geopolitical uncertainty from the war in Iran and volatility in energy and food prices as reasons for the upward revision.

US July CPI eased to 3.4% YoY from 3.5% in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday, matching economists' expectations. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) fell to 2.5% YoY from 2.6%. The moderation was driven largely by lower energy prices; gasoline was 2.9% lower in July versus June despite a sharp late‑July spike linked to tensions with Iran. Knock‑on effects from Trump’s war on Iran continue to hit the US economy. The report arrives as markets press the Fed to raise rates to counter inflation risks from war‑related energy supply disruptions, alongside tariff impacts and price pressures associated with an AI boom.

ONS data showed GDP for the three months to June rose 0.4% QoQ, down from 0.6% in Q1 and in line with economists' forecasts. Services drove the expansion; May was flat and June rose 0.3% month-on-month (economists had forecast -0.1%). Analysts say the UK largely weathered the initial months of the Iran war and consumer spending supported activity in Q2, but the Bank of England and economists expect growth to weaken as the conflict’s full effects emerge. Momentum in 1H 2026 is expected to ease into a muted H2 as a 13% July increase in the energy price cap squeezes households and policy uncertainty has risen after Burnham became the UK’s seventh prime minister in over a decade.