英国皇家联合军种国防研究所高级副研究员迈克尔·斯蒂芬斯表示，伊朗正致力于延长战争，因其认为经济压力并不对本政权生存构成根本威胁。他指出，开战近六个月以来，伊朗已确信美国无意发动地面进攻，“生存威胁已经消失”，因此德黑兰希望加快节奏，让特朗普总统感受到更强烈的痛楚，而最佳手段就是“拖下去”。斯蒂芬斯还称，与战前因大规模示威引发的“政权随时可能垮台”的普遍预期不同，伊朗目前显然并未崩溃，且美方似乎已无有效手段迫使伊朗就范。他总结道，伊朗人能够“在僵局中继续生存”——虽然承受痛苦，但并非生存危机，而这正是美国当前面临的真正难题。

CITIC Securities said in a research note that July US CPI met expectations, core inflation remained mild and second‑round effects were weak, easing inflation risks. The firm judges US inflation is not highly sticky and expects headline CPI YoY to continue moderating through Q3, trough in September, rebound slightly in Q4 and then fall rapidly by March next year. CITIC still forecasts the Fed will keep policy unchanged this year and sees further room for derivatives to reprice lower on rate‑hike expectations.

纽元兑美元NZD/USD日内下跌0.50%，现报0.5827。