US retail sales -0.6% m/m in July, the largest decline since May last year, below consensus +0.1%.

Buffett indicator (CSI 300 market cap/GDP) fell to 92.59% on Aug 13. CSI 300 equity risk premium (ERP) was 5.26%, oscillating around 5.2% since July and sitting at the lower end of its range since Oct 2024, suggesting the market’s yield advantage over government bonds is modest. Historical thresholds: Buffett indicator 70–100% is typically viewed as normal (below = undervalued; above = overvalued). Over a 10-year sample the CSI 300 ERP is inversely correlated with the index; ERP ≥6% has coincided with market lows and stronger investment value, while ERP ≤4% has typically coincided with cyclical highs and reduced investment appeal, raising pullback risk.

Fed's Goolsbee said the past two productivity readings were very disappointing.