MOODY'S: Heat and water risks no longer evolve on separate timelines; for investors both have become operational risks and drivers of earnings volatility and stranded-asset exposure.

欧洲斯托克50指数期货上涨0.26%，德国DAX指数期货上涨0.42%，法国CAC40指数期货上涨0.05%，英国富时100指数期货上涨0.32%。

Politico reports the one‑month US‑Iran ceasefire expires next Monday; if not extended, the near six‑month conflict could resume. A White House official said talks were 'stalled' as of Friday afternoon and they had not heard of any extension plan, adding distance is irrelevant — the key is whether Iran will return to the table, and so far it has not. Negotiations are hampered by fragmented power in Iran — the IRGC, clerical authorities and the government hold divergent positions and all factions must sign off — with key disputes on sanctions, frozen assets and passage of the Strait of Hormuz; US officials say any fees or transit control are 'unacceptable.' The Trump administration says it reserves 'all options' if Iran refuses a deal and that sanctions and a blockade have severely damaged Iran's economy; sources say the US may be underestimating Iran's endurance and would need rapid action to stabilise the situation ahead of the midterm elections.