Token支出价格指数最新下行至1.0775，自5月28日触及本轮高点2.0651之后开启连续回落。从5月末高点到8月12日，两个半月区间累计跌幅接近47.8%。当前指数已经跌破2025年末1.2446的水平，刷新2026年内最低值，AI算力定价已经回落至本轮产能扩张周期的低位区间。 注：出售Token是目前AI产业的重要变现源头，其价格是衡量目前算力供需状况的信号之一，若Token价格保持在高位，云服务商就有动力增购更多GPU、DRAM内存并扩建数据中心，反之就要小心AI企业“消费降级”，成为本轮硬件狂欢周期结束的领先指标。Token价格数据来源于OpenAI、Anthropic、DeepSeek等全球顶尖AI模型。

On Friday Aug 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 102.25 points (-0.19%) at 53,737.74; the S&P 500 opened up 2.88 points (+0.04%) at 7,802.07; the Nasdaq Composite opened up 57.50 points (+0.21%) at 26,860.53.

Oxford Economics says Japan’s planned food consumption tax cut will widen the fiscal deficit and lift JGB yields. Economist Norihiro Yamaguchi estimates the cut would reduce annual tax revenue by about ¥5 trillion and is unlikely to be fully offset by other measures. The firm assumes part of the shortfall will be covered by non-tax receipts and spending cuts, but that roughly half will be financed by debt, pushing the primary fiscal deficit to about 3% of GDP. It expects the deficit to begin improving from 2029 as debt/GDP rises and fiscal consolidation intensifies. Oxford Economics forecasts 10-year JGB yields will rise to around 3% by end-2026, from roughly 2.8% today. Market reaction so far has been limited, but the firm warns markets will increasingly price in the fiscal impact as policy details emerge.