Gold fell on Tuesday as higher oil and US Treasury yields raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, though it remains over 10% higher month-to-date. A Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group analyst said recovering investor demand and central-bank purchases continue to underpin prices. The Fed’s July minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium will be key for the rate outlook.

Iran's Press TV, citing a regional intelligence source, reported the Pentagon has concluded existing military plans cannot guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz or the stability of regional energy supplies. The source said the assessment reflects a strategic impasse in the Gulf, that no current military plan has sufficient political or security capacity to keep the strait open, protect shipping, and maintain energy stability. The source added the U.S. cannot control the waterway, dealing a serious blow to Washington's regional posture and exposing U.S. military limits against Iran's growing asymmetric capabilities.

The National Climate Center says equatorial central-to-eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures are rising and the event is expected to peak around November–December, forming an ultra-strong El Niño with a high probability of being the strongest on record. Since summer, China has shown typical El Niño impacts: eastern China has two north–south rain belts, heavy-rain episodes have been widespread and locally intense with overlapping affected areas causing compound disasters, and typhoon activity has been elevated with stronger storms and prolonged wind-and-rain impacts.