Goldman Sachs TMT trading desk says weekly implied US equity volatility is about 89bp, near a five-year low, with its panic reading at 0.36/10. The desk estimates option market makers hold roughly $15bn of positive-gamma hedges, near the 99th percentile, which biases dealers to sell into rallies and buy into dips and thus mutes short-term moves. It also estimates 96% of S&P 500 firms are in open repurchase windows and announced buyback authorizations exceed $1trln, implying corporate repurchases

Goldman Sachs TMT trading desk says weekly implied US equity volatility is about 89bp, near a five-year low, with its panic reading at 0.36/10. The desk estimates option market makers hold roughly $15bn of positive-gamma hedges, near the 99th percentile, which biases dealers to sell into rallies and buy into dips and thus mutes short-term moves. It also estimates 96% of S&P 500 firms are in open repurchase windows and announced buyback authorizations exceed $1trln, implying corporate repurchases could absorb selling in summer’s thin liquidity. Macro risks remain—long-end yields are still rising and oil has resumed an uptrend—but derivatives markets are pricing very low near-term volatility. If dealer positive gamma and buybacks persist, US equity short-term volatility may stay suppressed; if those supports weaken, the current ultra-low vol will increase sensitivity to price re-expansion.