The Fed left rates unchanged in July, but minutes show inf risks dominated officials' outlook. Many officials said further hikes could be needed if inf does not cool; the Fed's use of "many" denotes a sizable bloc short of a majority. At the July meeting July inf and payrolls data were not yet available. Subsequent July data showed inf cooled and the labor market softened, prompting traders to trim odds of a September rate hike. Markets will see additional inf and jobs prints before the next Fed

土耳其中央银行通过传统方法开通一周期限的黄金兑里拉卖方互换拍卖，规模为8吨。

A conflict once expected to last days or weeks is approaching six months, raising the risk Iran may delay any deal until the end of President Trump’s term in January 2029. Markets have largely abandoned a rapid resolution but have not fully priced a scenario extending to Jan 2029. An adviser to Iran’s parliamentary speaker said Trump would not reach a deal and Iran would “accompany” him but not sign a real agreement before his term ends. If fighting persists through Jan 2029, market, corporate and household expectations would have more time to adjust; oil and refined-products forward curves would likely reprice to reflect higher prices sustained for longer. Gulf exporters are expected to accelerate alternative export routes, efforts to bypass or reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, or seek negotiated safe‑passage arrangements with Iran in exchange for cash or gold; some alternative routes are reportedly advanced. Iran may intensify pressure on energy and shipping, restricting crude and refined-product outflows and disrupting tanker flows. A prolonged stalemate could erode perceived US geopolitical credibility, prompting partners to seek security and economic alternatives — a trend with prior economic precedents after recent US trade actions. Broader geopolitical spillovers, including increased risk involving Russia, may rise. The petro‑dollar recycling dynamic could become less stable; while the dollar is likely to remain dominant, oil‑dollar flows may increasingly diversify or shift toward alternative arrangements.