Fed minutes contained no views supporting rate cuts, marking a clear shift in
policy discussion versus a year ago. Markets had expected cuts as inf cooled,
but price pressures have persisted — amplified after the Trump administration's
involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict — and oil and gas flows via the Strait
of Hormuz remain constrained nearly six months after the outbreak. Recent data
show a modest easing in inf and an unexpected payroll decline in July, leaving
markets priced for the Fed to hold at the Sept. 15–16 meeting. Officials remain
divided on the need for further hikes but are more cautious on labour-market
strength and risks to achieving full employment; the Fed chair's reluctance to
outline his policy path leaves markets without clear guidance.
