Fed minutes said staff expect H2 overall inf to ease—largely driven by expected declines in retail gasoline—and for core inf to slow modestly. Staff project real GDP growth next year slightly above potential, with financial conditions and AI-related investment providing support; unemployment is forecast to remain near staff’s estimate of the long-run rate this year, edge down next year and fall slightly below the long-run rate by 2028. Compared with June projections, staff’s outlook for economic

Fed minutes said staff expect H2 overall inf to ease—largely driven by expected declines in retail gasoline—and for core inf to slow modestly. Staff project real GDP growth next year slightly above potential, with financial conditions and AI-related investment providing support; unemployment is forecast to remain near staff’s estimate of the long-run rate this year, edge down next year and fall slightly below the long-run rate by 2028. Compared with June projections, staff’s outlook for economic activity is a touch weaker, reflecting recent softer-than-expected data. Staff flagged sizable uncertainty from geopolitics and unclear economic effects of AI investment and adoption. Overall, risks to employment and real GDP are tilted to the downside while inf risks are tilted to the upside, including the risk that inf proves more persistent than staff anticipate.