美国总统特朗普：我有权与一个国家切断所有业务往来。

Aug 19 — WTI (USO) notional exposure was about 24.277 mln barrels, up 157,000 barrels on the day. Brent (BNO) futures holdings were about 7.819 mln barrels, up 126,000 barrels on the day.

Markets will parse the Fed’s July minutes for signs the three officials who voted to raise rates were not the full extent of a hawkish cohort; evidence that more officials seriously considered a hike would prompt re-pricing of September policy. Key read-throughs: whether minutes show more officials weighing a rate increase even if they did not cast a dissenting vote, how many said the “next step should be a hike,” and whether any argued for consecutive hikes. Watch hawks’ inflation arguments — whether they link persistent upside risk to supply shocks (notably energy), AI-driven demand and tariffs, and whether they flagged Middle East risks to energy and inflation — and whether they judge the labor market sufficiently robust to tolerate tighter policy in service of price stability. Compare tone with June’s minutes, which set out two scenarios (disinflation vs. sustained upside risks); if wording on the hike scenario is firmer or broader and shows a majority seriously discussing hikes, that alone would be policy-relevant. Offsetting force: post-July jobs and inflation readings have weakened and retail sales and consumer confidence have softened, nudging market-implied September hike odds down to roughly 30%. Nonetheless, if minutes show most officials were close to hiking at the July meeting, markets may view September as an uncertain meeting where the hike option remains on the table unless subsequent data materially worsen.