Huatai Securities says July’s summer travel season and a decline in jet-fuel
ex-factory prices prompted airlines to add capacity. Combined for Air China,
China Eastern, China Southern, Spring Airlines and Juneyao, ASK and RPK rose YoY
4.6% and 7.8% (June: ASK -2.5%, RPK -1.7%); load factor climbed 2.6ppt to 86.2%.
Volume growth has been accompanied by weak pricing: domestic fares including
fuel surcharge in weeks 27–31 (Jun 29–Aug 2) fell 3.2% YoY (vs Jun 1–28 +11.5%).
Early August (weeks 32–33, Aug 3–16) fares improved 2.6% YoY, but Huatai says
the low base means the summer peak has not produced a clear seasonality-driven
boost and sector attention remains limited. The firm will monitor international
oil and high-frequency data; it remains constructive on a mid- to long-term
industry recovery and says left-side positioning offers relatively high
cost-effectiveness.
