国际谷物理事会（IGC）将2026/27年度全球小麦产量预测下调400万吨，至8.17亿公吨。

Fed minutes from the July meeting showed several officials leaned toward a rate hike and many said policy would need to tighten further if inflation fails to decline. Uncertainty remained high and participants emphasized that incoming data will be central to policy decisions. The FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%; three dissents favored a 25bp increase, and two non-voting regional presidents said they would have supported a hike. Most participants expected inflation to ease this year as tariff and earlier energy-price effects fade, but many flagged a material risk that inflation stays elevated.

Japan July exports rose 23.2% YoY, above the 19.9% forecast, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration and the fastest pace since Oct 2022. Semiconductor equipment exports jumped 49.1% YoY, attributed to AI-driven demand. Imports climbed 27.8% YoY (vs. 26.5% expected), the highest since Nov 2022. The trade deficit stood at ¥634.5bn, below the ¥680.0bn forecast but wider than June’s ¥409.9bn. Petroleum imports surged 87.8% YoY amid higher oil prices linked to the Iran war.