隔夜美伊惯例放话对轰，狠话还是那些狠话，但底子已经不是那个底子。“狼来了”的理由已在上周消失，我们如何才能从这轮狠话中找到真正的有用信息？

USD/IDR rose to 17,690, the highest level since mid-June.

Independent political analyst Alex Alfilraz Sheils said Washington’s push to reimpose “maximum economic pressure” on Iran risks repeating measures from Trump’s first term that ultimately failed. He argued that earlier deterrent effects owed to policy uncertainty, but that the president has “lost credibility” in a second term, weakening US leverage with other states and reducing the likely effectiveness of secondary sanctions on Iran. Sheils blamed strategic errors — including policy oscillation and unclear use of military, governance and diplomatic tools — as factors undermining US geopolitical influence.