BOJ officials will have multiple near-term opportunities to either confirm or temper aggressive market bets on a September rate hike; market pricing implies roughly an 82% probability. Since the July 2024 hike drew heavy criticism, the BOJ governor has emphasized stronger communication. Yen moves remain a key trigger for the bank to signal intent. Daiwa senior economist Kento Minami said the BOJ may avoid an explicit September commitment and instead stress upside inflation risks to imply an earl

BOJ officials will have multiple near-term opportunities to either confirm or temper aggressive market bets on a September rate hike; market pricing implies roughly an 82% probability. Since the July 2024 hike drew heavy criticism, the BOJ governor has emphasized stronger communication. Yen moves remain a key trigger for the bank to signal intent. Daiwa senior economist Kento Minami said the BOJ may avoid an explicit September commitment and instead stress upside inflation risks to imply an earlier hike — a tone markets would treat as endorsement of September. Conversely, repeated emphasis on uncertainty, the need for more data, or assessing the impact of prior tightening would likely be interpreted as a signal to keep rates unchanged in September.