Goldman Sachs reiterated that if Gulf LNG exports via the Strait of Hormuz do not increase, TTF at €65/MWh is insufficient for Europe to effectively manage winter inventories. If Strait exports fail to improve, TTF must rise further to suppress Asian LNG demand and free cargoes for Europe. Goldman estimates that if Middle East energy exports only gradually normalize by 2027, TTF for December‑2026 delivery may need to exceed €100/MWh (assuming a normal-winter average), versus a €50/MWh base case

2026-08-24

Goldman Sachs reiterated that if Gulf LNG exports via the Strait of Hormuz do not increase, TTF at €65/MWh is insufficient for Europe to effectively manage winter inventories. If Strait exports fail to improve, TTF must rise further to suppress Asian LNG demand and free cargoes for Europe. Goldman estimates that if Middle East energy exports only gradually normalize by 2027, TTF for December‑2026 delivery may need to exceed €100/MWh (assuming a normal-winter average), versus a €50/MWh base case — roughly a 110% increase — to materially curb Asian demand.