Goldman Sachs reiterated that if Gulf LNG exports via the Strait of Hormuz do
not increase, TTF at €65/MWh is insufficient for Europe to effectively manage
winter inventories. If Strait exports fail to improve, TTF must rise further to
suppress Asian LNG demand and free cargoes for Europe. Goldman estimates that if
Middle East energy exports only gradually normalize by 2027, TTF for
December‑2026 delivery may need to exceed €100/MWh (assuming a normal-winter
average), versus a €50/MWh base case — roughly a 110% increase — to materially
curb Asian demand.