Ukraine still has alternative routes — rail, Danube ports and Romania’s Constanta — but their throughput is far below seaborne trade. Prior reports show rail and Danube routes currently each carry about 45% of export volumes; if Black Sea ports remain closed, alternative routes could sustain only roughly half of prior export capacity. ‘Not completely blocked’ therefore does not imply exports are not materially disrupted. Zelensky is also probing a limited, grain-focused ceasefire. Kyiv proposes

Ukraine still has alternative routes — rail, Danube ports and Romania’s Constanta — but their throughput is far below seaborne trade. Prior reports show rail and Danube routes currently each carry about 45% of export volumes; if Black Sea ports remain closed, alternative routes could sustain only roughly half of prior export capacity. ‘Not completely blocked’ therefore does not imply exports are not materially disrupted. Zelensky is also probing a limited, grain-focused ceasefire. Kyiv proposes sequencing: secure grain shipments first — Russia stops strikes on Ukrainian grain ports, vessels and export routes while Ukraine pauses attacks on Russian grain logistics — and has floated third‑country vessels with security guarantees to resume civilian grain shipping. Moscow wants any deal tied to Ukraine halting strikes on Russian energy infrastructure; that linkage is the current sticking point.