干预债市 1. Satori Insights：唯有缩减赤字、股市下跌或AI投资降温才能真正压低收益率。 2. 美国银行：贝森特仍无法将30年期美债收益率压回5%以下。一旦如此，美元和债券市场都可能承压。 3. 城堡证券：美国财政部试图通过回购国债来遏制长期借贷成本的做法属于“金融压抑”，可能削弱美元并推高通胀。 4. 联博资管：贝森特其实并没有削减国债的好办法，且其无权掌控美国联邦支出，如果没有国会批准，贝森特也无法改变税收政策。 5. 澳联邦银行：去年美政府效率部的惨痛教训表面削减政府支出或增税的难度，如果贝森特此次整固力度有限，将进一步打压美元。 6. Evercore ISI：政府目前已很难在赤字问题上采取任何实质性行动。除了国债利息支出外，今年高达GDP约6%的赤字主要由庞大的福利开支驱动。 7. 贝森特导师德鲁肯米勒：回购美债是错误决定，10年期收益率目前大致处于经济名义增长率附近，这意味着金融环境处于宽松状态，而非具有限制性。 制裁伊朗 1. 美国布鲁金斯学会：所谓的“经济D-Day”不过是一场“炒作和宣传”。 2. 凯投宏观：伊朗石油出口本已被限制，新制裁对伊朗能源收入

Hedgeye guest Daniel Lacalle says US explicit debt (~$40 tln) is headline-grabbing but not necessarily the first crack. Official US estimates put the present-value shortfall for Social Security and Medicare at about $95 tln over 75 years—roughly 5% of the cumulative PV of expected GDP—and federal debt in 2026 is forecast at about 101% of annual GDP. By contrast, euro-area hidden fiscal liabilities are at least as large as headline debt: the European Commission estimates net accrued public pension liabilities at about 150% of GDP and total pension promises at roughly 371% of GDP after future contributions; this excludes most future health and long-term care costs. Several large euro-area states have unfunded commitments exceeding 300% of GDP. Political resistance to spending cuts, French sovereign yields now above Italy's, and negative real returns on euro-area sovereign assets since 2021 have reduced investor appetite. Lacalle warns the next sovereign shock could originate in the euro area because member states borrow in a currency they do not control and reported debt follows the EDP headline measure rather than total public-sector liabilities. He adds recent global bond selling signals markets believe central banks can no longer mask fiscal imprudence; US Treasuries remain the global monetary and collateral benchmark, but euro-area fiscal risks are comparatively larger.

据以色列媒体：以色列军方称，以色列空军不久前轰炸了加沙地带中部的一处“恐怖分子基础设施”。