A REUTERS survey shows most economists now expect the Bank of Japan to tighten
faster than previously thought, with 57% forecasting a September rate hike (up
from 5% in July). Ten of 58 respondents expect a further hike in October or
December taking the policy rate to 1.5%. JP Morgan Japan chief economist Ayako
Fujita warned delaying a September move could trigger market turmoil, making a
pre-emptive adjustment likely. Looking beyond this year, 35 of 54 analysts
expect the policy rate to reach at least 1.5% by end-March next year — three
months earlier than in July’s survey — and roughly 60% expect rates to reach at
least 1.75% by end-Q3 2027. On the recent rare U.S.-Japan joint FX intervention,
18 of 26 respondents judged the measures ineffective or completely ineffective,
with many saying they merely delayed the problem rather than solved it.
