U.S. EIA week to Aug. 21: finished petroleum product imports 275,000 b/d; prior -258,000 b/d.

US government data showed the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 3.7% YoY in July, slightly above economists’ forecasts. Rate futures priced the probability of a September Fed rate hike at about 42% after the release, up from about 36% before.

IMF chief GEORGIEVA urged governments to tackle rising fiscal risks and publish credible plans to keep debt and deficits on a sustainable path, and called on central banks to remain highly focused on price stability. She said the global economy is under pressure from high inf and trade tensions, with AI investment partially offsetting shocks; rising bond yields and stalled disinflation signal continued high uncertainty. GEORGIEVA warned the Iran war has not ended and the world faces a tug-of-war between a Middle East-driven negative supply shock and an AI-driven positive demand shock, and flagged energy supply constraints, El Niño weather and AI-related risks to financial stability as material downside risks.