布伦特原油站上88美元/桶，日内涨2.57%。

Yonhap’s survey of six economists found respondents expect the Bank of Korea on Thursday to raise its 2026 GDP forecast from 2.6% to as high as 3.4%. Analysts’ forecasts cluster around 3.1–3.4%; Korea Investment & Securities’ analyst set his growth call at 3.2%, while Nomura’s economist offered the 3.4% high-end and said the central bank could materially revise up growth for this year and next. Drivers cited: a semiconductor-led export upside, higher tax receipts supporting larger government spending, and a pickup in domestic demand. Market participants note AI-driven demand is lifting chip consumption but supply is responding slowly; some see supply tightness persisting into or beyond 2027. A deputy director at Hyundai Research Institute flagged a risk that the supercycle could peak earlier, citing a month-on-month decline in August chip exports, but expects semiconductor strength to hold into year-end and into 1H next year.

BANK OF KOREA meets Thursday with markets divided between another August hike and a pause after July's 25bp increase to 2.75%. An August move would be a pre-emptive tightening aimed at curbing inflation and preserving financial stability, and would signal policy tightening ahead of the Fed. NH Investment & Securities says the August decision will set the cycle's tone—pre-emptive versus cautious; iM Securities argues delaying to October offers little benefit and the cost of delay is rising. Hold proponents say more time is needed to assess July's move, citing slowing July inflation, a stronger won and recent equity weakness; Eugene Investment & Securities adds that signaling possible future hikes can have a tightening effect without immediate action.