Natalia Lojevsky, managing director at CIFC Asset Management, said Treasury
buybacks do not retire debt and therefore cannot address the structural forces
pushing yields higher. The Treasury is repurchasing bonds and financing those
repurchases by issuing shorter-dated paper—maturity substitution, not
deleveraging—effectively treating a supply problem as a liquidity issue. The
long end of the U.S. Treasury curve faces pressure from multiple parties
competing for limited long-duration bids: the Treasury itself, the AI-driven
capex cycle, and the absence of the Fed—the market’s largest, least
price-sensitive buyer. Other traditionally steady central-bank buyers, including
Japan, China and Gulf-state buyers, have also reduced participation to some
extent.