Societe Generale rates strategists say 2027 budget negotiations are a key risk for the euro-area government bond market. Talks could refocus investors on fiscal strains and political uncertainty in countries such as Italy and Spain; the strategists recommend remaining short French sovereigns and modestly long Italian and Spanish sovereigns. Euro-area yields are near recent highs but remain within Societe Generale’s forecast range. They cite ongoing geopolitical risks, elevated oil and gas prices

2026-08-28

Societe Generale rates strategists say 2027 budget negotiations are a key risk for the euro-area government bond market. Talks could refocus investors on fiscal strains and political uncertainty in countries such as Italy and Spain; the strategists recommend remaining short French sovereigns and modestly long Italian and Spanish sovereigns. Euro-area yields are near recent highs but remain within Societe Generale’s forecast range. They cite ongoing geopolitical risks, elevated oil and gas prices, rising sovereign debt, an expected pick-up in bond supply and the prospect of increased political uncertainty after the summer recess as additional headwinds.

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