The IRGC's deputy political director told Fars News the US did not start the war over Iran's uranium enrichment. "Those who believe the war stems from uranium enrichment do not correctly understand history," he said. "Those who think if we stop enriching uranium there would be no war either lack accurate historical knowledge or proper analytical ability." He attributed the conflict to US aims to overthrow the Islamic Republic.

EIA: U.S. natural gas production is forecast to average 12.26 Bcf/d in August, up from 12.20 Bcf/d in July; September is forecast at 12.32 Bcf/d.

Deutsche Bank economists expect the Fed to raise rates by 25bp in both September and December. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks stressed the need to bring inflation back to a 2% target and sent a clearly hawkish signal. Deutsche Bank says the threshold to avoid a September 25bp hike is high unless incoming data are “significantly weaker than expected.” Markets repriced rapidly: CME shows probability of cumulative 50bp+ by December rose to 51% from 29% a day earlier; probability of only 25bp total is 38% and of no change is 11%. Bets on a September hike firmed after Warsh’s speech.