CNN analyst Brett McGurk says the six‑month conflict has moved into a fourth
phase and Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is at risk of failing. Since
mid‑July the US has re‑imposed sanctions on Iranian oil, re‑established a
maritime blockade of Iranian ports and stepped up naval escorts to clear and
protect commercial traffic; Bloomberg reports flows through the Strait have
recovered to about two‑thirds of pre‑conflict levels. Attempts by Iran to
interdict shipping with drones and sea mines have begun to lose effectiveness,
leaving Iranian oil exports effectively constrained and pressure accumulating on
Tehran rather than Washington. McGurk notes Iran could try to push prices higher
to force concessions—particularly ahead of US midterms—but Gulf states do not
back Iran’s claims to control the Strait. With the war entering a new phase, US
objectives—sustain the blockade, secure commercial navigation and press Iran to
abandon claims over the Strait and nuclear enrichment—are clearer and the
situation is starting to favor Washington.
