JP Morgan's Market Intelligence team cut its tactical view on US equities to cautious/neutral, saying indices are likelier to trade sideways over the next 2–3 weeks while subindexes and individual stocks may see larger volatility. Key drivers: after Jackson Hole, bond-market-implied probability of a September Fed hike rose roughly from 35% to 58%; the JPMPURE momentum index is down >21% from its June peak and the Classic momentum index is down ~34%, well beyond typical 10–15% pullbacks. Position

JP Morgan's Market Intelligence team cut its tactical view on US equities to cautious/neutral, saying indices are likelier to trade sideways over the next 2–3 weeks while subindexes and individual stocks may see larger volatility. Key drivers: after Jackson Hole, bond-market-implied probability of a September Fed hike rose roughly from 35% to 58%; the JPMPURE momentum index is down >21% from its June peak and the Classic momentum index is down ~34%, well beyond typical 10–15% pullbacks. Positioning offers no clear directional signal — US TPM sits at the 37th percentile — and historical patterns point to about 3–4 weeks of range-bound trading. Monitor inflation and rate-expectation moves, credit spreads, and the speed of momentum liquidation. Index-level damage is not the base case, but crowded, momentum-dependent stocks could see outsized idiosyncratic volatility.