Goldman warned attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia and the
Russia–Ukraine war are tightening the global refining market, and raised its
diesel refining margin forecasts by more than twofold. The bank said refinery
outages are running about 60% above seasonal norms, pushing product margins to
new highs with diesel at the center of the move; refined-product inventories are
declining despite some demand erosion. Goldman now expects next-year average
diesel refining profit versus Brent of $63/barrel in the US (prior $27) and
$49/barrel in the EU (prior $19).
