据路透社/益普索调查显示，美国总统特朗普的支持率维持在33%，为其政治生涯最低水平。

9月16日FOMC共有12名票委，改变政策至少需要7票。7月29日的表决仍是9票维持利率、3票支持加息，异议者为哈玛克、卡什卡利和洛根。沃什在杰克逊霍尔转鹰后，若再将条件性支持加息的库克计入，外部“数票模型”便得 到5票加息、5票维持、2票未知。但这只是立场推定，并非五人已经承诺投加息票。 暂未明确站队的是沃勒与鲍威尔。沃勒将于9月3日公开谈论经济与政策，可能成为下一位关键摇摆票。 偏向维持利率的包括威廉姆斯、巴尔、杰斐逊、鲍曼和保尔森。CME当前加息概率已升至约60%，但期货概率不能机械对应5—5—2的票数，它还包含就业、通胀数据和会议内部协调的预期。

Politico's Jonathan Martin says Senate control still turns on the Midwest. If Democrats flip Ohio and Iowa while holding Michigan they would likely net four seats and reclaim the Senate in Trump’s final two years. Republicans warn an agricultural backlash—tariffs, high diesel and fertilizer costs and cheaper imported beef—has created acute vulnerability in farm states that could spread beyond the Plains. Iowa is the likeliest flip; Kansas (no Democratic senator since 1932) could be competitive; Nebraska and Kansas incumbents face the toughest fights and southern Republicans show unusually weak polling. Democrats’ path now looks like holding Michigan, winning North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa, plus one of Maine, Alaska or Texas; in a worse scenario Nebraska, Kansas or Mississippi could also turn. Republicans cite high living costs, Trump’s weak standing with centrists and a Democratic enthusiasm gap; they say last month’s gasoline spike after the Iran ceasefire breakdown has hardened voter sentiment and, absent a major shift, the outcome could echo the 2006 Democratic takeover.